Sberbank commented on the likelihood of raising the rate to 23% in December
Senior Managing Director and Chief Analyst at Sberbank Mikhail Matovnikov shared his forecast for inflation and the key rate for 2025.
In his opinion, the Central Bank will most likely raise the rate in December.
The actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation are aimed at achieving the inflation target of 4%, RIA Novosti writes.
Matovnikov believes that in December 2024 the key rate could reach 23%.
The Central Bank is focused on reducing inflation.
The analyst emphasizes that abandoning inflation targeting is unlikely. High rates may continue to exist.
Matovnikov predicts that, according to the optimistic scenario, the rate will begin to decline in the second half of 2025.
He said: "There is a high probability that the rate will rise not only in December but throughout 2025."
Matovnikov noted that the current economic situation requires maintaining high rates.
The Russian economy has shown significant nominal growth since 2021. Salaries have increased by 50–60%.
However, real economic growth over the same period was about 10%.
The main risk, he said, is that economic output may not catch up with potential demand.
Matovnikov believes that a balance is needed to avoid sliding into double-digit inflation and to ensure opportunities for economic development.
